Key Takeaways
- Democrat Letitia Plummer leads in the race for Harris County Judge with 47% of the vote, while Republican Orlando Sanchez has 40%.
- Incumbent Democrat Adrian Garcia leads in the race for Harris County Commissioner Precinct 2 with 52% of the vote, followed by 40% for GOP challenger Richard Vega.
- Incumbent Democrat Lesley Briones leads in the race for Harris County Commissioner Precinct 4 with 49% of the vote, followed by Republican Steve Radack at 41%.
- 72% of Harris County voters disapprove of the recent county property tax increase.
Democrat Letitia Plummer leads Republican Orlando Sanchez by seven points in the race for Harris County Judge, with support from 47% of likely voters, compared with 40% for Sanchez.
A survey of likely voters by the University of Houston Hobby School of Public Affairs just ahead of the general election found Harris County voters dissatisfied with the status quo – 71% said the county is headed in the wrong direction – but suggests Democrats retain the lead over their Republican challengers.
Early voting starts Oct. 19, with the election set for Nov. 3.
“Voters are concerned about crime and property taxes, and 72% tell us they disapprove of the recent 7.6% property tax increase passed by Commissioners Court. They think the county, state and country are headed in the wrong direction. But that does not appear to have translated into a desire to reverse the county’s Democratic tilt.”
- Renée Cross, researcher and senior executive director of the Hobby School
The two Democratic commissioners up for reelection both lead their opponents. Precinct 2 Commissioner Adrian Garcia has support from 52% of likely voters, compared with 40% for Republican Richard Vega. And Precinct 4 Commissioner Lesley Briones is leading Republican Steve Radack, 49% to 41%. Radack served as Precinct 3 Commissioner for more than 30 years, leaving office in 2020.
Support for Democratic candidates cut across most demographic groups. Plummer, a former Houston City Council member, led among women (54% to 34%), Black voters (86% to 8%) and Latinos (48% to 38%), while Sanchez led among white voters (52% to 35%) and with voters over 55 (50% to 40%).
“White voters and older voters were more likely to support the Republican candidate, but that couldn’t offset the strong advantage Democratic candidates had with younger voters,” said Mark P. Jones, political science fellow at the Rice University Baker Institute for Public Policy and senior research fellow at the Hobby School. “For example, while Sanchez has a 10-point advantage among older voters, Plummer is leading by 41 points among voters under 35 and by 13 points among those between 35 and 54.”
That held true in the county commissioner races, as well. Garcia led by 29 points among voters 18-34 and by 18 points among those 35-54. Vega led by two points among voters 55 and older. Briones led by 42 points among voters 18-34 and 22 points among those 35-54. Radack led by 13 points among those 55 and older.
Among the other findings:
- The most important issues when determining vote intention in the race for county judge included crime and public safety (26%), property taxes (20%) and voting rights (15%). Researchers found sharp differences among supporters of the county judge candidates when identifying their top concerns: Plummer supporters ranked voting rights (40%), racial equity and equality (28%) and health care (20%) highest, while Sanchez supporters ranked crime and public safety (73%), property taxes (59%) and the candidates’ political party (22%) as their top three.
- Voters aren’t happy with the direction things are headed, with 71% saying they are dissatisfied with the direction of Harris County, 67% saying that about the United States and 63% about Texas.
- More than half of voters surveyed, or 56%, oppose the use of Flock cameras for law enforcement purposes in Harris County; 40% approve.
- All four members of Commissioners Court had positive net favorability ratings, including Precinct 1 Commissioner Rodney Ellis, at 24 points; Precinct 2 Commissioner Adrian Garcia, 13 points; Precinct 3 Commissioner Tom Ramsey, 27 points; and Precinct 4 Commissioner Lesley Briones, at 7 points. But large numbers said they did not know enough about Ramsey and Briones to have an opinion, at 45% and 37%, respectively.
- County Judge Lina Hidalgo, who did not run for reelection, had the highest unfavorable ratings, at 63%, while 30% of respondents said they have a favorable impression of her.
- Democrat James Talarico is leading Republican Ken Paxton by 22% in the U.S. Senate race among Harris County voters, more than three times the 7% lead Plummer holds over Sanchez in the county judge race.
The full report is available on the Hobby School website. The 2026 general election survey was fielded between October 3 and October 8, 2026, and included 2,750 participants in Harris County. The margin of error is +/- 1.87%. Future reports will cover statewide elections, the race for Texas Congressional District 9, the possibility of a National Hockey League team and hockey arena in Harris County, Latino and rural voters, and attitudes about data centers.