Key Takeaways
- Republican Alex Mealer is leading by six points in the race for Texas’ 9th Congressional District, with 48% of the vote compared to 42% for Democrat Leticia Gutierrez. 10% remain undecided.
- The 9th Congressional District is one of five redrawn during a mid-decade redistricting effort to increase the number of Republicans Texans send to Congress.
- The district is dramatically different from the old 9th Congressional District, which had been represented by progressive Democrat Al Green for over two decades.
Republican Alex Mealer is leading Democratic challenger Leticia Gutierrez by six points in the race for Texas’ 9th Congressional District, with support from 48% of likely voters, compared with 42% for Gutierrez.
The survey of likely voters in Harris and Liberty counties by the University of Houston Hobby School of Public Affairs found that the redrawn 9th district, a majority Hispanic district which includes the Houston Ship Channel and parts of east Harris County, now trends Republican. The district is dramatically different from the old 9th Congressional District, which had been represented by progressive Democrat Al Green for over two decades.
Renée Cross, researcher and senior executive director of the Hobby School, said Mealer’s strong showing among independent voters and those in Liberty County suggests legislators’ efforts to draw more GOP-friendly districts is likely to pay off in the 9th.
“While some of the other newly drawn districts, especially those along the border, appear to be in play, the 9th is leaning Republican for the upcoming election, although perhaps not quite as decisively as planned. Almost two-thirds of independent voters say they will support Mealer, along with a similar percentage of Liberty County voters.”
- Renée Cross, researcher and senior executive director of the Hobby School
Early voting begins Oct. 19, and the election is set for Nov. 3.
Mealer is an Army veteran and former oil and gas finance executive who unsuccessfully ran for Harris County Judge in 2022. Gutierrez is an environmental advocate from east Houston.
Mark P. Jones, political science fellow at the Rice University Baker Institute for Public Policy and senior research fellow at the Hobby School, said Gutierrez’s strength with Black and Latino voters, along with younger voters, wasn’t enough to overcome Mealer’s strong showing among white and older voters.
“Mealer led with 64% of white voters and 58% of those who are 55 and older, who make up a large part of the traditional Republican base,” Jones said. “Gutierrez drew support from 69% of Black voters and 54% of Latinos, along with 52% of voters under 35.”
Jones also noted that “unlike many Republican candidates, who tend to find themselves bested by their Democratic rivals among women voters by a substantial margin, Mealer enjoys the support of 44% of women voters to 47% for Gutierrez. Combined with Mealer’s 19-point lead among men, that goes a long way toward explaining her six-point lead in the 9th.”
Among the researchers’ other findings:
- 65% of independents said they support Mealer, compared with 17% who support Gutierrez. 18% of independents said they are unsure. Among Republicans, 82% support Mealer, 11% support Gutierrez, and 7% are unsure. Among Democrats, 90% support Gutierrez and 10% are unsure.
- 42% of likely voters said they have a favorable opinion of Mealer, while 35% have an unfavorable opinion and 23% said they didn’t know enough about her to have an opinion. 28% reported a favorable opinion of Gutierrez, while 33% have an unfavorable opinion and 39% didn’t know enough to have an opinion.
- Harris County voters gave Gutierrez a slight edge, 45% to 44%. Liberty County voters, however, supported Mealer by a more than two-to-one margin, with 65% of the vote compared with 28% for Gutierrez.
The full report is available on the Hobby School website. The 2026 general election survey was fielded between Oct. 3 and Oct. 7, 2026, and included 677 likely voters in the 9th Congressional District. The margin of error is +/- 3.77%. Future reports will cover statewide elections, the possibility of a National Hockey League team and hockey arena in Harris County, Latino and rural voters, and attitudes about data centers. A previous report covered races for Harris County Judge and Harris County Commissioner’s Court.