The latest survey of likely voters from the University of Houston’s Hobby School of Public Affairs found frontrunners in the Republican and Democratic primaries. (Credit Getty Images)
Key Takeaways
- Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton is leading in the Republican primary for U.S. Senate with support from 38% of likely voters. 31% support incumbent Sen. John Cornyn, and 17% back U.S. Rep. Wesley Hunt.
- In the Democratic primary, U.S. Rep. Jasmine Crockett is leading with 47% of the vote, while 39% support state Rep. James Talarico.
- Paxton leads both Cornyn (51% to 40%) and Hunt (56% to 33%) in a hypothetical runoff matchup. Cornyn leads 46% to 39% in a hypothetical runoff match with Hunt.
- All three of the leading Republican candidates have an edge over either Crockett or Talarico in a November race, although the advantage is small and within the margin of error.
With just over a week to go before the start of early voting, Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton holds a seven-point lead in the race for the Republican nomination for U.S. Senate, with 38% of likely voters saying they will support him, while 31% say they will vote for incumbent U.S. Sen. John Cornyn.
The latest survey of likely primary voters from the University of Houston’s Hobby School of Public Affairs found U.S. Rep. Wesley Hunt in third place, with 17% of the vote. None of the other candidates in the race drew more than 1%. Twelve percent of voters were undecided.
In a potential May runoff, the survey found Paxton leading Cornyn, 51% to 40%, and leading Hunt 56% to 33%. Should the runoff be between Cornyn and Hunt, 46% said they would support Cornyn, while 39% would support Hunt.
On the Democratic side, U.S. Rep. Jasmine Crockett is leading state Rep. James Talarico for the party’s nomination, 47% to 39%, with 12% undecided.
Renée Cross, researcher and senior executive director of the Hobby School, said the findings suggest many Texas primary voters are ready for change and are backing candidates who will shake things up in the U.S. Senate.
“Supporters of both Paxton and Crockett told us they are looking for a ‘fighter’ as one of the top qualities they want in a candidate,” Cross said. “Forty-four percent of Paxton voters say they want a fighter, compared to just 33% of Republican primary voters overall who agree. Among Democrats, 39% of Crockett voters want a fighter, compared to 35% overall.”
The desire for change may not extend to November. When asked about a potential matchup in the November general election, Texas voters gave a slight edge to all three of the leading Republican candidates over both Crockett and Talarico. The margin was tight, however, and within the survey’s margin of error.
Paxton leads both Crockett and Talarico by two points, while Cornyn leads Crockett by two points and Talarico by one point. Hunt leads Crockett by three points and Talarico by four points.
“Texas is still a red state, and although these margins are narrow, either of the Democratic candidates will have their work cut out for them in November,” said Mark P. Jones, political science fellow at Rice University’s Baker Institute for Public Policy and senior research fellow at the Hobby School.
More than one-third of voters, 34%, said they don’t know enough about Talarico to have an opinion, Jones noted; 35% said the same of Wesley Hunt.
Crockett is better known — just 19% of primary voters said they didn’t know enough about her to have an opinion — and she drew substantially stronger support than Talarico among Black voters, 71% to 13%, and among voters who do not have a four-year college degree, 55% to 30%.
“Texas is still a red state, and although these margins are narrow, either of the Democratic candidates will have their work cut out for them in November.”
— Mark P. Jones, senior research fellow at UH
Among the survey’s other findings:
- President Donald Trump remains popular with Republican primary voters, with 89% reporting a favorable impression. 87% said the same of Vice President JD Vance, while Gov. Greg Abbott and U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz were at 86% and 83%, respectively.
- 55% of Republican primary voters said they would be more likely to support a U.S. Senate primary candidate endorsed by Trump. Trump has not made an endorsement in the Texas Republican primary.
- Texans are evenly divided in their overall approval of Trump’s handling of his job as president, with 49% approving and 50% disapproving. However, Trump is underwater with Texas likely voters on his handling of key issues, with only 43% approving and 55% disapproving of his handling of inflation and the cost of living.
The primary election is March 3. Early voting begins Feb. 17.
The full report is available on the Hobby School website. The survey of 1,502 likely November 2026 voters in Texas was conducted between Jan. 20-31 in English and Spanish and has a margin of error of +/- 2.53% overall and of +/- 4.18% for both the March Republican and Democratic primary elections.
The next report in this study will look at other statewide races. Forthcoming survey reports will focus on countywide and congressional primary contests in Harris County.