The latest research from the University of Houston’s Hobby School of Public Affairs shows a tight race in the primary runoff for the Republican nomination for U.S. Senate. (Credit Getty Images)
Key Takeaways
- Attorney General Ken Paxton narrowly leads incumbent U.S. Sen. John Cornyn in the GOP runoff for the U.S. Senate, 48% to 45%.
- State Sen. Mayes Middleton has a nine-point lead over U.S. Rep. Chip Roy in the GOP runoff for Texas attorney general, 48% to 39%.
- Incumbent Jim Wright is leading challenger Bo French in the GOP runoff for Texas railroad commissioner, 35% to 28%, with 37% undecided.
Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton and incumbent U.S. Sen. John Cornyn remain locked in a tight race for the Republican nomination for U.S. Senate, with Paxton holding a narrow advantage three weeks before the primary runoff.
The latest research from the University of Houston’s Hobby School of Public Affairs shows Paxton with support from 48% of likely GOP runoff voters, compared to 45% for Cornyn. The survey also found state Sen. Mayes Middleton with a nine-point lead over U.S. Rep. Chip Roy in the race for attorney general.
Renée Cross, researcher and senior executive director of the Hobby School, said the GOP Senate nomination remains up for grabs, even with relatively few voters who say they aren’t sure who to support.
“Just 7% of people who plan to vote haven’t decided, suggesting the candidate who is able to turn out his voters will determine the winner,” she said.
There are significant differences between the two camps. Paxton supporters were more likely to list immigration and border security as the most important policy issue, at 40% compared to 28% among Cornyn voters, while Cornyn voters were more likely to say inflation and the cost of living is the top concern, selected by 36% compared to 13% of Paxton voters.
The two sides do have something in common.
“Both candidates have focused on electability in the general election in November, and each group of supporters believes their candidate has the best chance of beating Democrat James Talarico,” Cross said, with 86% of both Paxton and Cornyn supporters saying their choice is the stronger GOP candidate.
Researchers found a powerful relationship between education levels and support for Cornyn or Paxton.
“Cornyn enjoys a 10% lead over Paxton among voters who have a four-year college degree, while Paxton holds a 17% lead over Cornyn among those without a four-year degree,” said Mark P. Jones, political science fellow at Rice University’s Baker Institute for Public Policy and a senior research fellow at the Hobby School.
Jones also noted that Paxton picked up a notably larger share of the support from voters who cast a ballot in March for third-place finisher Wesley Hunt, with 53% of Hunt voters backing Paxton and 34% opting for Cornyn in the runoff.
In the race for the Republican nomination for Texas attorney general, Middleton drew support from 48% of likely runoff voters, compared to 39% for Roy. Another 13% of voters are unsure.
And in the runoff for a seat on the Texas Railroad Commission, incumbent Jim Wright is leading Bo French — 35% to 28%, respectively — with 37% of voters unsure. Approximately half of likely voters report they don’t know enough about either Wright or French to have an opinion about them.
The primary runoff is May 26, and early voting begins May 18.
When considering the favorability ratings of the Republican Party’s top leaders, Vice President JD Vance leads the way with 81% favorability, followed by President Donald Trump (77%), U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz (76%) and Gov. Greg Abbott (75%).
The full report is available on the Hobby School website. The survey of 1,200 likely runoff voters was conducted April 28 and May 1 and has a margin of error of +/- 2.83%. Future reports will look at the upcoming Harris County Democratic primary runoffs and runoffs in Congressional Districts 9 and 18.