A survey of likely runoff voters from the University of Houston’s Hobby School of Public Affairs found some frontrunners in the May runoff for the 18th and 9th congressional districts. (Credit Getty Images)
Key Takeaways
- Christian Menefee has a seven-point lead over Al Green in the Democratic runoff for Congressional District 18, 50% to 43%.
- Alex Mealer leads Briscoe Cain by nine points in the Republican runoff for Congressional District 9, 50% to 41%.
U.S. Rep. Christian Menefee is leading U.S. Rep. Al Green heading into the Democratic primary runoff for the 18th Congressional District, with 50% of likely voters saying they will support Menefee and 43% saying Green is their top choice.
A survey of likely runoff voters from the University of Houston’s Hobby School of Public Affairs also found Alex Mealer, who ran for Harris County judge in 2022, with a nine-point lead over state Rep. Briscoe Cain in the Republican runoff for the 9th Congressional District. Half of voters said they support Mealer, while 41% plan to vote for Cain.
Menefee was elected to represent the 18th District during a special election in January, but redistricting by the Texas Legislature shifted the boundaries before the primary election in March. Green has represented the 9th District since 2005 but moved to the 18th District after his former district was redrawn to be more GOP-friendly, with Green’s current 9th District constituents accounting for 64% of the constituents of the new 18th District.
Renée Cross, researcher and senior executive director of the Hobby School, said the survey suggests voters are interested in a new generation of political leaders, even when they have been happy with current leaders.
“More than four out of five voters say they have a favorable opinion of both Menefee and Green,” she said. “Despite their favorable views of Green, we found that support for Menefee cuts across racial and generational lines, with some notable exceptions.”
Menefee maintained strong leads among white and Latino voters, as well as with those younger than 55 years old, but Green held a slight edge among Black voters, 48% to 45%, and among older voters, 48% to 46%. Green is 78 years old, while Menefee is 38 years old.
Green also leads among the swath of Fort Bend County voters who live in the 18th District, with 55% of the vote, compared to 36% for Menefee.
“More than four out of five voters say they have a favorable opinion of both Menefee and Green. Despite their favorable views of Green, we found that support for Menefee cuts across racial and generational lines, with some notable exceptions.”
—Renée Cross, researcher and senior executive director of the Hobby School
Mark P. Jones, political science fellow at Rice University’s Baker Institute for Public Policy and senior research fellow at the Hobby School, credited Menefee’s lead in large part due to his ability to retain a higher share of his voters than Green from the March primary, 92% to 82%.
“He also garnered support from twice as many of third-place finisher Amanda Edward’s primary voters, with 62% of Edwards’ voters backing Menefee in the runoff and 29% supporting Green,” Jones said.
In District 9, Mealer and Cain both retained a high share of their primary voters, at 96% and 91%, respectively. Jones noted the two are deadlocked among May voters who cast a ballot for third-place finisher Steve Stockman in the March Republican primary, with 44% of Stockman voters supporting Mealer and 46% supporting Cain. Mealer holds a modest lead over Cain among voters who supported fourth-place finisher Dan Mims in March.
The runoff is set for May 26, and early voting begins May 18.
Among the survey’s other findings:
- Black voters in District 18 split 48% for Green and 45% for Menefee. Meanwhile, 65% of white voters backed Menefee, compared to 32% for Green. Latino voters favored Menefee 55% to 37%.
- 84% of Democratic runoff voters in the 18th District said they have a favorable opinion of Green, while 82% said the same of Menefee.
- Runoff voters in the 9th District had a favorable opinion of both Republican candidates, with 55% saying that of Mealer and 51% saying the same of Cain. 16% didn’t know enough about either candidate to have an opinion.
- 52% of women voters in the 9th District support Mealer, compared to 39% who support Cain. The split was narrower among male voters, who favor Mealer 48% to 43%.
- 52% of white voters and 46% of Latinos support Mealer, compared to 40% and 41%, respectively, for Cain.
The full report is available on the Hobby School website. The District 9 survey was fielded May 5-9, and the District 18 survey was fielded May 5-8, with the number of respondents and the margin of error for each congressional runoff ranging from 400 (margin of error of +/- 4.90%) for Congressional District 9 to 800 (margin of error of +/- 3.46%) for Congressional District 18.
A previous report considered the Republican runoff for U.S. Senate; a future report will look at the Harris County Democratic primary runoffs.