Key Takeaways
- Newly elected U.S. Rep. Christian Menefee is leading challenger U.S. Rep. Al Green by 24 points in the Democratic primary for the 18th congressional district, 52% to 28%.
- Incumbent U.S. Rep. Sylvia Garcia is leading former state legislator Jarvis D. Johnson in the Democratic primary for the 29th congressional district, 46% to 27%.
- 61% of Democratic primary voters in the 9th congressional district say they are unsure who they will support. Leticia Gutierrez leads with 24%, followed by Terry Virts and Earnest Clayton, both with 5%.
Fresh off winning a special election to represent the 18th congressional district, newly minted U.S. Rep. Christian Menefee is leading challenger U.S. Rep. Al Green by 24 points ahead of the March 3rd Democratic primary.
More than half of likely voters, or 52%, say they support Menefee, according to the latest survey from the University of Houston’s Hobby School of Public Affairs, while 28% back Green, the longtime Democratic incumbent in the 9th congressional district. Green filed to run in the 18th after the Texas Legislature redrew congressional boundaries earlier this year.
Former city council member Amanda Edwards, who withdrew from the race earlier this month but remains on the ballot, had 9% support, and 10% were undecided.
Renée Cross, researcher and senior executive director of the Hobby School, said the findings support the idea that voters are ready for change.
“Rep. Green has been historically beloved by his constituents in the 9th district, and he was viewed favorably by 79% of likely voters in the upcoming primary for the 18th district. Yet just as we have seen in some other races in Texas, 18th district voters appear ready for a new generation of leadership.”
—Renée Cross, Hobby School senior executive director
The boundaries of the 18th district shifted between the special election, which was decided in a runoff Jan. 31, and the upcoming primary, but Menefee outpolled Green even in the portions of the district that were previously part of the 9th district, which Green has represented since 2005.
“Menefee drew support from 70% of likely voters who live within the boundaries of the former 18th district, compared to just 13% for Green,” said Mark P. Jones, political science fellow at Rice University’s Baker Institute for Public Policy and senior research fellow at the Hobby School. “But Menefee also drew more support from the portion of the newly redrawn district that had been part of Green’s former district, the 9th. There, Menefee has the support of 43% of voters, while Green had 36%.”
Menefee leads Green among both white voters (56% to 19%) and Black voters (53% to 29%), while the Latino vote was evenly split, with 39% for Menefee and 37% for Green.
Elsewhere on the Democratic primary ballot, incumbent U.S. Rep. Sylvia Garcia is well ahead of challenger Jarvis D. Johnson in the 29th congressional district, with 46% of the vote compared to 27% for Johnson, a former state legislator. Another 26% said they are unsure, while 2% support Robert Slater.
Jones noted that the 29th District was also substantially redrawn during the mid-decade redistricting, pushing Garcia to campaign in unfamiliar territory.
“Despite that, she drew strong support from voters in areas new to the district as well as in areas she has historically represented, perhaps the result of her long years in public office,” he said.
With no incumbent in the race, a majority of voters in the 9th district Democratic primary say they aren’t sure who they will support — 24% back Leticia Gutierrez, who works for nonprofit advocacy group Air Alliance Houston, while former NASA astronaut Terry Virts and epidemiologist Earnest Clayton each have support from 5%. More than three-fifths of likely voters, 61%, are unsure.
The full report is available on the Hobby School website. The number of respondents and the margin of error and the dates in the field for each Democratic congressional race varies. The 18th district results included 1,000 respondents, with a margin of error of +/- 3.10%.
The 29th district results included 500 respondents, with a margin of error of +/- 4.38%, while the 9th district included 400 respondents with a margin of error of +/- 4.90%. The 18th congressional district survey was conducted Feb. 3-8, while the 29th district and 9th district surveys were conducted Feb. 3-10.
Previous reports looked at the race for U.S. Senate and statewide races. Forthcoming survey reports will focus on Republican congressional primaries and countywide primary races in Harris County.