The latest survey of likely primary voters from the University of Houston’s Hobby School of Public Affairs found high numbers of undecided Republican primary voters in several congressional and legislative districts. (Credit Getty Images)
Key Takeaways
- Alex Mealer has an eight-point lead over Briscoe Cain in the Republican primary for the 9th Congressional District, 34% to 26%. Ten percent support Dan Mims, while 19% of likely voters are unsure.
- Half of voters in the GOP primary for the 38th Congressional District remain undecided. Jon Bonck leads with 22% of the vote, followed by Shelly deZevallos (10%) and Michael Pratt (8%).
- Stan Stanart leads in the Republican primary for Texas House District 126, with 31% of the vote. Kelly Peterson has 24%, while 36% of likely voters are unsure.
- Incumbent Lacey Hull leads in the GOP primary for Texas House District 138, with 49% of the vote. Josh Flynn trails with 13% of the vote, while Natalie Blasingame has 12%.
Alex Mealer, who ran for Harris County judge in 2022, is leading a closely watched Republican primary for the newly redrawn 9th Congressional District, with support from 34% of likely voters. State Rep. Briscoe Cain follows with the support of 26% of voters, while businessman Dan Mims trails with 10%.
The congressional district is one of several dramatically reshaped by the Texas Legislature during a mid-decade redistricting effort last year. Al Green, the Democrat who has represented the district since 2005, is running in the 18th Congressional District, meaning there is no incumbent in the race.
The latest survey of likely primary voters from the University of Houston’s Hobby School of Public Affairs found high numbers of undecided GOP primary voters in several congressional and legislative districts, even as early voting is set to begin Feb. 17. The primary is on March 3, and the runoff will be May 26.
Renée Cross, researcher and senior executive director at the Hobby School, said it is likely that more races than usual will go to a runoff this year.
“Some of these open seats drew a large number of challengers, including nine Republicans in the 9th District and 10 in the 38th District. And many of these candidates aren’t well-known,” she said. “Such factors make it more difficult for a candidate to break the 50% threshold required to avoid a runoff.”
For example, 63% of 9th District voters said they don’t know enough about Mims, who also serves on the San Jacinto College board of trustees, to have an opinion of him, even though he placed third in the field of nine. Just 23% said the same about Mealer, and 17% said they did not know enough about Cain to have an opinion. Almost one out of five voters in that race, 19%, are unsure who they will support.
“Some of these open seats drew a large number of challengers, including nine Republicans in the 9th District and 10 in the 38th District. And many of these candidates aren’t well-known. Such factors make it more difficult for a candidate to break the 50% threshold required to avoid a runoff.”
—Renée Cross, senior executive director at the Hobby School
In the 38th District, the uncertainty climbs to half (50%) of likely voters who say they are unsure of their vote intention in the GOP primary. Mortgage broker Jon Bonck leads a crowded field with 22% of the vote, while Shelly deZevallos, former vice chair of the Harris County GOP, has 10% and Michael Pratt, a member of the Tomball ISD board of trustees, has 8%.
Mark P. Jones, political science fellow at Rice University’s Baker Institute for Public Policy and senior research fellow at the Hobby School, said races with more familiar names on the ballot tend to have fewer undecided voters, although the numbers are still high.
“Lacey Hull has represented Texas House District 138 since 2021, and she is leading the field with 49% of the vote, while Josh Flynn and Natalie Blasingame have support from 13% and 12% of voters, respectively,” he said. “But more than one out of four voters in the district, or 26%, say they are unsure who they will support.”
Jones noted that Stan Stanart, running in the GOP primary for state House District 126, is remembered by many voters from his years as Harris County clerk. He is leading with 31% of the vote, followed by Kelly Peterson, district director for retiring state Rep. Sam Harless, with 24% and Polly Looper with 9%. More than a third of voters, 36%, are unsure.
The full report is available on the Hobby School website. The surveys were fielded Feb. 3-10. The number of respondents and the margin of error for each Republican congressional and legislative race varies, ranging from 800 respondents with a margin of error of +/-3.46% for Congressional District 38 and 400 respondents with a margin of error of +/-4.9% for Congressional District 9 to 300 respondents with a margin of error of +/-5.66% for Texas House Districts 126 and 138.
Additional 2026 primary reports on the U.S. Senate, statewide races and Houston-area Democratic congressional races are available on the Hobby School website. A forthcoming survey report will focus on countywide primary races in Harris County.